Will Obama Give The White House To McCain?
by James Glaser
June 3, 2008
To start off, I don't hang around with any Republican or Democrat Party loyalists. I spend my time working at an Art Park in Tallahassee, Florida. In the past I would have thought the people that I work around would be left-leaning, but the truth is that even artists are all over the political spectrum.
So, here is the score as I see it where I work. There are about two rabid Obama supporters, twenty five who voted for Hillary in the primary, and maybe fifteen people who voted Republican. There are more people working here, but those are the numbers I know about.
Now I doubt if any of the people who voted Republican will cast a vote for a Democrat no matter who they put up. So if these people vote, McCain will get their vote, and being Republicans, you can bet they will vote.
The real question is, will the Hillary backers vote for Obama if he is given the nomination. Now there are a lot of sore Democrats here in Florida after they heard that the Democratic National Party had decided that their vote would only count for half a vote at the National Convention. They also don't like the idea that Hillary Clinton has more popular votes than Obama. Sure there is a debate about that, but Floridians know the Party took away more than a few hundred thousand votes from Clinton with that half vote ruling.
If the Democrats were honest, they would have to admit that neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama got enough delegates in the state primaries to claim the nomination. No matter who gets it, it will be the so-called Super Delegates who put one or the other over the top. If Hillary can claim more popular votes, and Obama gets the nod, many Democrats are going to stay home on election day.
My guess is that if Obama gets the nomination, and McCain can keep his cool and run a great campaign, many soft Democrats in Florida will cross party lines and vote for him. I think right now he is a shoe-in with independent voters.
I don't think the Democratic National Party understands how upset most Democrats and many Independents were about Gore beating Bush by half a million votes and still losing the election in 2000. If they think Hillary Clinton was robbed the same way, Obama will lose this fall.
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