|
Who Decides If The Recession Is Over?
by James Glaser October 7, 2009 I was just wondering about that. Is the recession over when the government in Washington says it is, or are there economic factors that tell us? I don't trust Washington. It seems that every number they give us about the economy has to be revised a month or so later. It also seems that those numbers that are revised always made things look better before their revision. I would imagine if you are one of the millions of Americans out of work, the recession would be over when you get back to steady employment for a good while. Starting back to work doesn't end the hole you are in, it takes a long time to pay everything you got behind on, and even longer before you can start building that nest egg again. It has been reported that the average American work week is down to 33 hours. That means that businesses will have to get their workers up to 40 hours a week or higher, before they will think about hiring new workers. Right now we need over 10 million new jobs just to be where we were when this whole mess started. The following is an article written by Reuters yesterday that explains how America's business leaders see this recession and if they see the end in sight. It is interesting how much different their outlook is. WASHINGTON (Reuters)—U.S. finance executives believe the American economy is still in recession, despite signs growth may have resumed in the third quarter, a survey showed on Tuesday. The survey conducted by the Association for Financial Professionals also showed that many executives in the financial sector did not expect their organizations to resume hiring or capital spending in the next six months. The poll was carried out on Monday and nearly 1,000 chief financial officers and treasury executives participated. About 69 percent of respondents believed the recession, that started in December 2007, would continue well into 2010. Only 11 percent believed the downturn had ended, while 20 percent only saw it winding down before the end of the year. The survey's findings are at odds with recent economic data and forecasts from private institutions that suggest the economy started growing in the third quarter after the longest and deepest contraction since the 1930s. Nearly two-thirds of respondents in Monday's survey expected to maintain payrolls at current levels in the next six months, while 22 percent saw a further reduction. Only 14 percent anticipated their organization would resume hiring. The finance sector is one of the areas worst hit by the recession, which was mainly triggered by the collapse of U.S. housing market and the ensuing global credit crisis. About 58 percent of respondents expected to either maintain or cut capital spending over the next six months, while 21 percent believed their organizations would increase spending, the survey showed. More than half said their organizations' access to capital had stabilized over the last six months, with access to bank lending improving for 22 percent of the respondents. They remained wary of weak consumer spending and the possibility that a double-dip recession. (Reporting by Lucia Mutikani) |
BACK to the Politics Columns.