They Are Playing With the Numbers Again
by James Glaser
February 9, 2010

Every month Washington puts out numbers about almost everything to do with the economy. This should be a useful tool, but their numbers are seldom if ever right. Every time they give a number for the last month, they also put out revised numbers for the month or months before this latest set of numbers.

The Labor Department revised past data to show that the economy comprised 1.36 million fewer jobs in December than previously thought. The revisions showed the economy lost 150,000 jobs in December—far more than the 85,000 initially reported.

That last Statement was put out by the New York Times on Friday. I don't know if it is just me, but it seems like Government numbers only come out on Fridays or the day before a major holiday.

Also on Friday we were told that 20,000 people lost their jobs during January, but unemployment went down from above ten percent to 9.7 percent. Why? Because they play with the numbers. If you lose your job, and after let's say five months of hard looking you fail to find work and give up, according to the way Washington figures it, you are no longer unemployed.

Here is another number. For the past couple of months President Obama has been lamenting about how horrible it is that 7 million Americans have lost their jobs during this recession. Well, now we find out that the real number of Americans who have lost their job is in fact 8.4 million. The President was only down-playing the number by 1,400,000.

Now the media and Washington are trying to tell us that things are looking up in the job market.

Manufacturing added 11,000 jobs in January, the first monthly increase since November 2007, while factories saw a modest increased in the length of the workweek.

To me, eleven thousand jobs is grasping at straws. That increase in the length of the workweek, well that is not great either. The average worker now puts in 33.3 hours a week compared to 33.2 hours a week in December. They are touting a 6 minute increase.

Real job growth is not going to happen until that average workweek gets close to 40 hours a week. Right now an employer can increase the number of hours his employees work, which is far less expensive than new hiring. It is only when the company or corporation is forced to pay overtime that new hiring makes sense.

Well, this numbers game has been going on for years, and it doesn't matter which party is in power, as they both do it. Wall Street is not fooled. Friday and Monday, the stock market continued to fall even with this headline in the New Your Times

Labor Market Shows Signs of Reawakening in New Data

We don't know, but next month, when they revise the numbers, those signs of reawaking might just prove to be a continued nap for American employment. Washington is more than willing to grasp at any straw they can get hold of, and then they pass those straws out as gospel.

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